It’s hard not to get political these days. Tehran has just ended a week so electrifying, that some are saying the excitement didn’t reach such levels even during Khatami’s first elections campaign . Indeed we may owe this to those earlier days during which people had only started to test the boundaries of public expression accepted by the regime. But now with that precedent already having been set, and still clear in memories, even for the very young, demonstrations were taken to new heights, to the surprise of many. Also surprising has been the docile atmosphere, despite the levels of enthusiasm and emotion running very high. There have been a few scattered reports of scuffles breaking out between opposing groups on the streets, but if they happened, compared to the dimensions we feared they could take, they were small, short-lived and contained.
But in this round something new has happened. It may very well be the beginning of a new saga in the life of the Islamic Revolution, and one which could have deep, disturbing, yet constructive ramifications. For the first time, it was decided to allow broadcasts of public debates between candidates on national television. Structured and formatted similarly to debates on the other side of the world, what we expected in the beginning was to view dampened and heavily moderated dialogues between the nominees, in line and laced with the usual “Islamic”, “revolutionary”, and “moral” values. Enter Mr. Ahmadinejad. On his first debate with Mr. Mousavi, the now principal reformist candidate, Ahmadinejad turned the discussion into a mudslinging, finger-pointing smear-fest. His rhetoric was so harsh, so direct and so rash, that it helped the dying Iranian national television produce its most entertaining and astonishing programming overnight. Other candidates, with the exception of Mr. Rezai – whom had not really been given the opportunity by Ahamadinejad – followed suit, but of course they neither had Mr. Ahmadinejad’s incredible talents nor were they as unscrupulous. For the remainder of that night, and the following debates, the moderator, who previously had made a few attempts at – well – “moderation”, was transmogrified into a mere chronometer.
It was last Wendesday night, after the debate, when the rallying and demonstrations in the streets changed gear, thanks to Mr. Ahmadinejad and his policy of openness. People on every side took to the streets in unprecedented numbers, became more vocal, and their slogans became more poignant.
The stripped and saucy outpouring into public media is perhaps the most important offering of this presidential election. It is yet another important precedent that will hopefully be used in the future in giving some transparency to a system that is acclimated to operating in murky waters. Mr. Ahmadinejad himself, in deflecting accusations, has announced on several occasions that if there are any claims against him, they should be published. How journalists, politicians, Iranians, make use of this opportunity remains to be seen.
But there is more. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s revelations seem to have put him on a head-on collision course with some of the most powerful political clusters in the country. Whether there has been design behind his strategy or it has gotten out of control, it seems to be tantamount to political suicide. Those subject to Ahmadinejad’s aggressive posturing, will not sit still on the sidelines. Mr. Rafsanjani’s recent letter to the leader, Mr. Khamenei, is evidence to that. Some say that Ahmadinejad’s behavior must have been sanctioned by the leader himself, and that in time those picketing for revenge will be reigned in. Perhaps. Perhaps that’s why Big Ben never invited Ahmadinejad to any form of restraint during the debates. But that seems to be irrelevant now. If the leader has had a hand in this move he seems to have cornered himself as well. Leaving the steering wheel in the hands of Ahmadinejad was another tactical blunder. New alliances will be forged, even between unlikely partners, and in the best case scenario, Ahmadinejad will be stumbling on the many blocks set before him. Most likely, the show will not play out as nicely as that however. Short of war with another country or a coup, it is difficult to imagine how Mr. Ahmadinejad could continue as president for another term, even if all votes were cast for him. Should he manage to get elected, the price of the coming political war will be paid by the people as usual. If not elected, it is unlikely that he would just fizzle away. Turbulent times lay ahead.
