Mr. Mousavi, the principle challenger to Ahmadinejad has called the results of this election “wizardry”. But if this is not a coup then I don’t know what is. The thing about a coup is that when it comes, it’s hard to believe, even if you’ve fancied the idea in detail beforehand. Suddenly all those nearly impossible elements come together, and the strange mix is brewed before you, wide-eyed and amused at how simple it really is. In our case, a group has taken over that is acting as if nothing is wrong whatsoever. When asked by foreign journalists at his press conference today about the current situation, about the smell of burning that is hanging over Tehran, he dismissed everything as just a small show of emotions by the fans of a losing soccer team.
Why this is happening is beyond me. What kinds of dangers were perceived by this administration and the leadership to make them go so far? It looked to me like until last week Iran was a country full of problems, but relatively stable. It looked like its government, still very young and riddled with conflict, was gaining legitimacy by its people. They flocked to stations and elected to vote instead of speaking of boycotts and the need for an overhaul. From what I saw, they voted for change, but let’s say I’m a dude living in the wrong neighborhood. Fine…now let us see those masses, the twenty something million people who voted for Ahmadinejad, saddle up, pick up their cheer horns, and celebrate till morning. After the highly energized campaigns and demonstrations by the opposition, they should get out there just to rub their victory in. What we see in the streets of Tehran is a very different landscape.
Ahmadinejad won the elections when his Interior Ministry was inaccessible, when mobile phone and text messaging services were cut off, internet access was hampered, opposition websites were filtered and universities were closed on the eve of exams. As if all this was not enough to paralyze opposition groups and the flow of information, their headquarters have been raided and shut down, and there are rumors of members and staff having been arrested since Friday. Surely opposition leaders haven’t been seen or heard by anyone during this time.
As for the flowing emotions and Ahmadinejad’s claim that he is not worried much about the situation, that Iranians enjoy “almost complete freedom”, I would like to know who is then ordering the riot police, the Revolutionary Guards Corp., and the plainclothes Baseej mercenaries, to swarm the crowds and beat them indiscriminately? There have been reports of death among those beaten although it is hard to say what the numbers are at this point. Injuries are innumerable. Last night medical emergency services were zigzagging across the city. The streets of Tehran are in chaos, especially at night. People clash with the police, burn trash dumpsters, tires, buses and gas stations. They smash government banks and buildings, honk their horns ceaselessly in protest and gather in large crowds to chant “death to the midget dictator”. Similar reports are coming from other major cities. People must have lost quite a soccer game this time.
Surprisingly there is a high level of restraint on the part of the demonstrators. The destruction has been aimed at government property up until now. This is due to there still being hope for taking the country back. And the fact that – ahem- everyone is on the same side of the fence.
In the four years of his administration, Ahmadinejad has been replacing key management positions in the country with people from his team. The most important organs are under his control, including the Interior Ministry. Most importantly he has had the backing of the Leader, Ali Khamenei. Although it looked as if he had been persuaded last week, maybe by Rafsanjani, to let the elections play out as they would, Khamenei’s sudden turn and his announcement that the results should be accepted, took everyone by surprise. There is the possibility that he was coerced by the Revolutionary Guard Corp., or he was persuaded that he was about to lose the country to a “velvet revolution”. These are just speculations though. What matters is that the revolution has come anyway, but in sand paper instead of velvet.
Khamenei can still save the country which is on the verge of breakdown. The government can of course step up the clampdown, impose curfews or order the police to start shooting live rounds. We are not very far from it. But it looks like he is losing ground with the clerics in Qom. Should they manage to talk Khamenei down from this madness, he still has the chance at this point to overturn the results and save face. He can claim that he has merely stated facts from the Interior Ministry. His premature announcement according to the law (a three day grace period for launching any complaints is considered before the Guardians Council approval and then the Leader’s is made official), can be pushed under the rug. People would accept that. As a friend’s father said tonight, if Khamanei wants to avoid losing his throne, he needs to “drink from the poison cup”.
Tags: democracy, elections, politics, revolution