Revenge of The Sith

The news has been nothing but worrying. The closures of Mousavi’s and Karroubi’s offices and arrests of people close to them, especially Beheshti, are interpreted as a prelude for apprehending the leaders of the opposition within the coming days. Once again, we are at a critical juncture and all eyes are on the Supreme Leader and his Friday Prayers speech. Over the past month, attempts may have been made at reconciliation, or not, but it seems the time for interpretations and reinterpretations is over.

Much like the jumbled goulash of a Lucas plot, it is now very difficult to understand who is who in this mess of Iranian politics. There is still talk about whether Khamenei is behind the IRGC and Ahmadinejad, or in their pocket and used as a tool. His recent flip-flops – advising Ahmadinejad to heed to criticism then backing his list of ministers, or his announcement about having received no evidence on connections between foreign elements and the leaders of the opposition – may have indicated weakness, or maybe they have been his customary method of driving a wedge between political rivals. Sadegh Larijani and Dowlatabadi – Mortazavi’s replacement – have also been a source of puzzlement as well. Are we going to vigorously pursue the perpetrators of the crimes committed in our prisons? If we are then why close the offices gathering and investigating the claims?

People are confused, and tired of it. Those that I speak to have already decided that there will be no surprises in this week’s Friday Prayers. Khamenei will pave the way for the government to make its move. What seemed as concessions in the recent weeks are interpreted by some as nothing more than buying time for building nonsensical cases against the opposition and preparing the public for the coming events. The remaining fact on the ground is that coerced or not, Khamanei has stood on one side of the fence.

A wise man once advised me that “life in Iran is like playing chess with a gorilla. You pick white. He is black. Your first move is to push a pawn two squares forward. Your opponent stares, scratches his head and proceeds by picking up your pawn and eating it.” His words have been ringing in my head loudly over the past few months.

Before his inauguration, Ahmadinejad said that once he is in power, he will grab his opponents by the collar and slam them against the ceiling. We were mistaken in hoping for a peaceful resolution and should have taken the gorilla’s words at face value. Many are saying the recent move by the government is good in that it finally puts everyone out of the gray area and turns the world black and white. The death of reason was rather drawn out, and it remains to be seen whether we accept our fate to live with Ahmadinejad, or move on to the next and more dangerous phase.

All occasions, religious (Ghadr or Ahya) or historical (Taleghani’s memorial), for gatherings in this month have been cancelled. There is a flurry of activity to organize a mass demonstration on Qods Day. It is labeled as the make-or-break point, but it is difficult to judge how many people will show. People now know what can happen to them if they are taken in, which was absent in the Iranians’ imagination in the early days after the elections. To counter, the government is issuing stern warnings against the demonstration through the IRGC, and there are rumors that the Basij is mobilizing heavily as well. They are scared. And so are we.