We are approaching Qods Day and it has been a frightening week. The worst part is that everyone is scared: the government, conservatives, reformers, the clergy and the people. The kick-start was Khamenei’s Friday Prayers speech issuing threats to everyone, pushing events to take new speed and tension. Following the tone set on Friday, causing worries that the time for arresting the opposition leaders is near, came a barrage of attacks from the establishment, most importantly through the three-member judiciary panel rejecting Karroubi’s claims of rape and torture, and the announcement of new show trials. This was until yesterday, which saw the opposition changing gear in response.
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Karroubi has become a real “hair in the nose” for the establishment. The man just would not back off. First came his open letter addressed to the judiciary, rejecting their rejections. Next was a video of his “missing” witness released on the internet claiming he is in hiding out of fear for his life and that of his family’s. Karroubi also issued another open letter, this time to the public, detailing some of the events that took place between himself and the panel, and generally portraying the judiciary as trying to quash the investigations. The letter was released while he was to meet with Ali Larijani at the behest of the Supreme Leader. Although the details of the meeting remain secret, it is believed that Karroubi snubbed an order to cool down before Qods Day, and in return the parliament would “really” look into things this time. Karroubi has reportedly said he would rather die.
“We are passionate for duty, not thirsty for power”. A tribute to ten years of service by the judiciary on the occasion of Shahroudi leaving and Sadegh Larijani taking his place.
Many had thought that with Larijani coming on board and the immediate reshuffling that he embarked on, a glimmer of hope for battling the system through legal means had opened up. The regime certainly seemed to gesture in that direction. After the hasty report by the three-member panel and calls for bringing Karroubi to trial, the view now is that everyone was taken for a ride. Trust in the judiciary is completely gone. They are now part of “them” for making a mockery of people. I tried to visit the website listed on the banner and I got either nothing, an administration panel login prompt, or a page saying the CD is coming soon without a single link to any information. Much like Shahroudi, Larijani will most likely have nothing to show for his judiciary in ten years either.
Karroubi is not the only nuisance however. The next assault came from Montazeri labeling the government a “military state” and calling on the Marjas to break their silence. There are reports that the Marjas from many cities including Qom, are organizing to issue a unanimous fatwa declaring the government, and perhaps the Supreme Leader, illegitimate. Three of Montazeri’s grandsons were arrested last night. There are reports of arrests of other clergy’s children as well. It looks as if the establishment is pressuring the Marjas to not issue their condemnation.
Mousavi, having been in the sidelines in recent days, has announced that he would join people on Friday, and so has Khatami. Rafsanjani also endorsed the rally through an announcement today. Although his remarks remain as ambivalent as his politics, the reason for its appearance at this time, and its effect perhaps on neutralizing efforts to curtail attendance, are clear.
There is hardly anyone in Tehran who is not talking about Qods Day. Although campaigning has been heavy in encouraging the Greens to join – even through flyers and stickers this time – the Qods demonstrations have been a tradition since the revolution, and this year’s comes with a baggage that can hardly be ignored. Attending is another matter, and most of the discussions still revolve around going or not. There is also talk of the predicament that the regime finds itself in: if people refuse to attend, it will be the regime’s rally that flops, and if they attend massively, the demonstration will most likely turn green. Another issue is that this year’s demonstration will probably occur amidst a heavy presence of security forces which will not look very good on camera. The case will be worse if Friday turns violent. The government’s ideal would be to only have their supporters show up, and to achieve that, the best way is to instill fear in the opposition.
Today, many I spoke to here and there, were sure that the regime would call the rally off, perhaps for national security reasons, despite the advertising.
The buildup for this Friday has been tense, and it is only Tuesday. We await a wave of bad news when the regime makes its next moves. The green resolve to march on Friday remains to be seen, but if they do march, then someone should get the regime a nasal hair trimmer.
Tags: demonstrations, politics, protests, Qods Day