All In

I don’t remember being as freaked out as I am now before any other demonstration. Caffeine and Nicotine are my best friends these days. Part of the reason is the unpredictability of 22 Bahman, in terms of turnout on both sides, the regime’s reaction, and the outcome. I have a small window for talking about this past week as internet connections are fading away, so I’ll skimp on details, but here’s how things are, a sort of “word on the street is”, from my usual sources (butchers, intellectuals, businessmen, grocers, cab drivers, artists, old, young):

The Turnout: It looks like the opposition will hit the streets massively. Over the past ten days, the higher-ups, including Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and some organizations, have come out in support of the demonstrations. We had not seen anything like this before. This time, the calls for protest and criticism of not just the government but the system as well, have been out in the open and unveiled. To me it seems like after a short period of dancing around, following the Supreme Leader’s call for everyone to clarify their positions, they came out and made their moves: All in. And if that wasn’t enough: All in again.

This makes turnout a particularly critical factor. Should Iranians leave the fields to the government, no one has any doubt that the regime will move to eradicate all elements of reform, up to the highest levels, immediately after 22 Bahman.

The Strategies: A low turnout is the best option for the regime, and up to now it has used its finest tactics to instill fear in the protesters and prevent them from showing. The regime’s recent rhetoric though, coming from the likes of Motahari and Ahmadi-Moghaddam, is interpreted by many as showing its own level of anxiety. The response: we’re coming out on 22 Bahman. Last night I went into a store to buy some cigarettes, and the owner abruptly said to everyone: “don’t forget your green signs on Thursday.” This level of openness is not something I am used to.

Some too, have told me that they are scared or disillusioned. Well, not in these words exactly, but the idea was clear. So the worry is there, that the government tactics – mass arrests, executions, threats – may have been partially successful. We’ll know in less than two days.

In case of a massive rally, there is talk about two alternatives that the regime has:

First, is to allow it, and this is the better alternative. Bear the embarrassment and let people scream on the streets, and they will go home in the afternoon. Maybe beat some of them on their way home just like Qods day. Simplistic? Possibly.

Second, is confrontation. This is the alternative that everyone is anxious about. This time, it is not an issue of fear – we’ve been through confrontations before – but one of scale. Some are saying – threatening – that if the regime prevents people from demonstrating, Ashura will look like a picnic. With the exception of a few locations, and with regime forces concentrated on those, people will have the entire city to themselves. Heck, they may even have the entire country.

There is even talk of the possibility of conflicts breaking out between government supporters and the opposition on the streets. A people vs. people scenario that leaves the regime’s hand open in entering the fray and suppressing the Greens.

The general – and new – feel to this demonstration is much like a medieval war. Two armies are building up and preparing to meet at the battlefield in two days. Numbers will mean a lot, but emotions are running high too.

The Broadcast: Yes yes, internet connections are going down. Nothing new. But does it matter? It is all too late and unnecessary, and the story will get out, like always.

Some genius said this week that a ship anchor hit the fiber down south, so there has been, and will be, intermittent degradation of service for some time. Funny thing is the anchor must have only hit the encryption, HTTPS, mail and chat strands.

Connections have been dodgy since last Thursday and getting worse every day. During this time, access through regular HTTP has been just fine wherever I’ve tested it in Tehran. It still is. But HTTPS has been jammed though, affecting services that depend on it including the better anti-filter methods. This varies from area to area, ISP to ISP. For the most part, they were nice enough to open up HTTPS during the day, while still disallowing access to Gmail and other web-based mail services over the past four days. But since last night, many haven’t had encrypted access at all. One ISP I tested today didn’t have issues though. No worries, it will by 22 Bahman.

The Immaterial:
Nuclear talks and sanctions.
20% uranium enrichment.
Building X many more enrichment plants.
Building X/2 many more enrichment plants.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Worms in space.
Oh…and worldpublicopinion.org too. (Would someone please tell these guys the debate over the election results is over? It has been for the past, say, six months. The election set off the snake to start eating its tail, and we’re ecstatic about it. Eighty percent, shmeighty percent. As I’ve said before, it is now about the 30-year-old sedimentary doo-doo finally bubbling up and hitting the fan; about people being crunched over here, not numbers, all at the hands of a small putrid group of medieval idolaters. And I said “small”. Now that’s a survey right there.)

See you on the other side.